Predicting Trump's Next 100 Days: Focus On Trade Agreements, Deregulation, And Executive Branch Power

Natalie Brooks

6 min read

Post on Apr 29, 2025

4.8

Share

Trade Agreements: Rewriting the Rules of Engagement

A hypothetical return to power would likely see a renewed focus on reshaping trade agreements to favor American interests. This involves a multifaceted approach encompassing renegotiation, tariff imposition, and the pursuit of new trade partnerships.

Renegotiating Existing Deals:

The potential renegotiation of existing trade deals, particularly revisiting the USMCA (formerly NAFTA), would be a central focus. This could lead to significant changes in various sectors.

• Expected changes to agricultural tariffs: Potential increases in tariffs on Canadian dairy products and Mexican agricultural goods.
• Auto manufacturing regulations: Possible revisions to rules of origin, impacting the automotive industry's supply chains.
• Dispute resolution mechanisms: Attempts to modify or weaken existing dispute resolution mechanisms, potentially favoring the US in trade conflicts.

The impacts on US businesses and consumers would be substantial. Industries like dairy farming and automotive manufacturing would face uncertainty and potentially significant adjustments. Experts predict increased costs for consumers on some imported goods, while domestic producers might benefit from reduced competition, depending on the specifics of any renegotiation.

Imposing New Tariffs and Trade Barriers:

A key characteristic of a hypothetical return to power would be the imposition of new tariffs and trade barriers. China is likely to remain a primary target, potentially leading to increased tensions.

• China as a primary target: Further tariffs on Chinese goods, potentially impacting various sectors, including technology and consumer goods.
• Potential retaliatory measures from other countries: Retaliatory tariffs from China and other trading partners could lead to a trade war, harming the US economy.
• Impact on inflation: Increased tariffs could lead to higher prices for consumers, contributing to inflation.

The potential for trade wars, fueled by retaliatory measures, is a significant risk. Economic theories like comparative advantage would be challenged, potentially leading to inefficient resource allocation and reduced overall economic growth. Data on US trade volumes with China and other countries would be crucial in assessing the potential economic impact.

Exploring New Trade Partnerships:

A hypothetical return to power might also focus on exploring new trade partnerships, strengthening ties with specific countries and potentially forging new deals outside existing agreements.

• Focus on strengthening ties with specific countries: Potential emphasis on bilateral agreements with countries perceived as more favorable to US interests.
• Exploring new trade deals outside existing agreements: Negotiating new trade deals outside the framework of existing multilateral organizations like the WTO.

The geopolitical implications of forming new partnerships are significant. While such partnerships could bring economic benefits, they could also strain relationships with existing allies and further complicate the global trading system. A careful assessment of the risks and benefits would be crucial for navigating this complex landscape.

Deregulation: Unleashing the Private Sector?

A hypothetical return to power would likely prioritize deregulation across various sectors, aiming to reduce government oversight and "unleash" the private sector.

Environmental Regulations:

Significant rollbacks of environmental regulations are anticipated.

• Likely targets for deregulation: Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act, and emissions standards for automobiles and power plants.
• Environmental implications: Increased pollution, accelerated climate change, and potential negative impacts on public health.

The environmental implications are potentially severe. Rollback of regulations could lead to increased air and water pollution, impacting public health and contributing to climate change. The scientific consensus on climate change and the economic costs of inaction would likely be contested.

Financial Regulations:

Changes to Dodd-Frank and other financial regulations are highly probable.

• Impact on banks, investment firms, consumer protection: Reduced oversight could lead to increased risk-taking by financial institutions and weaker consumer protections.
• Role of lobbying groups: The influence of lobbying groups representing financial institutions would play a significant role in shaping these changes.

Deregulation in the financial sector carries significant risks. Reduced oversight could increase the likelihood of another financial crisis, impacting the global economy. The delicate balance between fostering economic growth and protecting consumers and the financial system would be a critical consideration.

Labor Regulations:

Changes to minimum wage, worker protections, and unionization efforts would be expected.

• Expected impacts on employment, wages, and worker safety: Potential decreases in minimum wage, weakened worker protections, and efforts to curb unionization.
• Potential social and economic effects: Increased income inequality, potential decline in worker safety, and potential social unrest.

The social and economic implications of deregulation in the labor market could be profound. Weakened worker protections could lead to lower wages, reduced worker safety, and increased income inequality. The potential for social unrest and political backlash would be a key factor.

Executive Branch Power: Expanding Presidential Authority

A hypothetical return to power would likely focus on expanding the power and authority of the executive branch.

Use of Executive Orders:

Increased reliance on executive orders to circumvent Congress is highly probable.

• Examples of areas where executive orders might be used: Immigration, environmental policy, trade policy.
• Potential for legal challenges: Executive orders are subject to legal challenges, creating uncertainty and potential for court battles.

The legal framework surrounding executive orders, including the potential for judicial review, would be critically important. The implications for checks and balances within the US system of government would be a central concern.

Appointments to Key Positions:

Strategic appointments to key positions in the judiciary and cabinet would reshape policy direction.

• Potential shifts in policy direction due to personnel changes: Appointments of individuals aligned with a particular ideology would lead to shifts in policy across various sectors.
• Role of confirmation hearings: Confirmation hearings in the Senate would become battlegrounds for policy debates.

The selection and confirmation of judicial and cabinet appointees would have long-term consequences, influencing policy for years to come. Partisan battles during confirmation hearings would shape the nature of these appointments.

Weakening of Independent Agencies:

Attempts to limit the authority of independent regulatory bodies would be likely.

• Specific agencies that might be targeted: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Federal Communications Commission (FCC), Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
• Potential consequences for oversight and accountability: Reduced oversight and accountability could lead to corruption and lack of transparency.

The role of these agencies in ensuring transparency and accountability would be diminished. The potential implications for good governance and the rule of law would be significant.

Conclusion:

Predicting a hypothetical return to power requires careful consideration of past actions and stated priorities. By focusing on trade agreements, deregulation, and expanding executive branch power, we've explored potential scenarios and their wide-ranging consequences. Understanding these potential shifts is crucial for businesses, policymakers, and citizens alike. Stay informed about the evolving political landscape and continue to follow our analysis for updates on Predicting Trump's Next 100 Days and beyond. Regularly check our website for the latest insights and predictions on this complex and important topic.